BI 836845 in Estrogen Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-14, after 2014-05-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientstablebevacizumabmetastaticqt
Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerhepatitisdrugslonghiv -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 251 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 251 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 138 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12393 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3193 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- everolimus, exemestane, xentuzumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Safety and Efficacy of Alpelisib With Everolimus or Alpelisib With Everolimus and Exemestane in Advanced Breast Cancer Patients, Renal Cell Cancer and Pancreatic Tumors NCT02077933 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Study of AZD2014 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02216786 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Everolimus Beyond Progress for Patients Who Had Progress Under Everolimus and Exemestane NCT01773460 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Dose EScalation Induction of EvERolimus NCT02387099 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Phase I Study of BEBT-209 in Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT06047184 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.