Trial Evaluating Dovitinib Combined With Fulvestrant, in Postmenopausal Patients With HER2- and HR+ Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastaticlocallyadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningtrialendocrinepersistenthr
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 377 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 297 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 323 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Palbociclib (PD-0332991) Combined With Fulvestrant In Hormone Receptor+ HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Failure (PALOMA-3) NCT01942135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Study of Taselisib + Fulvestrant Versus Placebo + Fulvestrant in Participants With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Disease Recurrence or Progression During or After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT02340221 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Study of GDC-0941 or GDC-0980 With Fulvestrant Versus Fulvestrant in Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer in Participants Resistant to Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT01437566 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Randomized Trial of Fulvestrant With or Without Dasatinib in Men and Postmenopausal Women Who Have Hormone Receptor-positive Advanced Breast Cancer Previously Treated With an Aromatase Inhibitor NCT00754325 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• QUILT-2.015: A Study of AMG 479 With Exemestane or Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00626106 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.