Comparing the Efficacy and Tolerability of Fulvestrant 500 mg Versus 250 mg in Advanced Breast Cancer Women

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: canceradvancedmetastaticchemotherapybreast
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyefficacy andendocrineevaluate theto evaluate
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 330 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 939 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Global Study to Compare the Effects of Fulvestrant and Arimidex in a Subset of Patients With Breast Cancer. NCT01602380 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib (PD-0332991) Combined With Fulvestrant In Hormone Receptor+ HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Failure (PALOMA-3) NCT01942135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Study of Faslodex With or Without Concomitant Arimidex Versus Exemestane Following Progression on Non-steroidal Aromatase Inhibitors (NSAI) NCT00944918 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Anastrozole or Fulvestrant in Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Breast Cancer NCT00871858 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Randomized Trial of Fulvestrant With or Without Dasatinib in Men and Postmenopausal Women Who Have Hormone Receptor-positive Advanced Breast Cancer Previously Treated With an Aromatase Inhibitor NCT00754325 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.