Letrozole or Tamoxifen Citrate in Treating Older Postmenopausal Women Undergoing Surgery for Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-10-31, after 2008-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerconcurrentstagecarcinomano prior
Phrases that lowered it: breast cancereffectestrogenpostmenopausalwomen with -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 65 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 120 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4051 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 925 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- letrozole, tamoxifen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Letrozole, Anastrozole, Exemestane, or Tamoxifen Citrate in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer NCT00893061 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Operable Hormone-Sensitive Breast Cancer NCT03747042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Chemotherapy or Letrozole Before Surgery in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer That Can Be Removed By Surgery NCT00963729 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Trial of Endocrine Against Locoregional Therapy First in Postmenopausal Women With Early Breast Cancer NCT00908531 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
- Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Hormone Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Negative Node-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03219476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.