Alternative Dosing of Exemestane Before Surgery in Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Stage 0-II Estrogen Positive Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-02-02, after 2016-12-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast cancerstagecarcinomacellheart
Phrases that lowered it: participantsaminotransferaseallergicefficacysystemic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 144 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1072 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1072 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 144 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8940 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1944 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- exemestane
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Exemestane in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT00810797 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Exemestane in Treating Patients With Complex Atypical Hyperplasia of the Endometrium/Endometrial Intraepithelial Neoplasia or Low Grade Endometrial Cancer NCT03300557 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Exemestane and Cyclophosphamide for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01963481 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Exemestane in Post-Menopausal Women With NSCLC NCT02666105 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Letrozole or Tamoxifen Citrate in Treating Older Postmenopausal Women Undergoing Surgery for Breast Cancer NCT00949598 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.