MK6186 in HIV-1 Infected Patients (MK-6186-007 AM2)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patienttolerabilitygreatercancertherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: dayevaluate thetrial toprescriptionclinical trial
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 722 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 210 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• MK-4646 Multiple Dose Trial in Participants With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) (MK-4646-003) NCT07042945 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• MK-8527 Single-Dose Trial in HIV-1 Infected Participants (MK-8527-004) NCT05494736 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study of MK-1972 in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 Infected Participants Who Have Not Previously Received Antiretroviral Therapy (MK-1972-003) NCT01353898 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• Activity of MK-8504 in Anti-retroviral-naïve, Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 (HIV-1) Infected Participants (MK-8504-002) NCT03188523 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study of Islatravir (MK-8591) in Anti-Retroviral Therapy-Naive, Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Infected Participants (MK-8591-003) NCT02217904 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.