A Study of GSK2118436 in BRAF Mutant Metastatic Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mricancerstagepotentialradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsdailytwicethe efficacymetastatic
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1227 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 438 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Comparing GSK2118436 to Dacarbazine (DTIC) in Previously Untreated Subjects With BRAF Mutation Positive Advanced (Stage III) or Metastatic (Stage IV) Melanoma NCT01227889 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Effectiveness of GSK1120212 in BRAF Mutation-positive Melanoma Previously Treated With or Without a BRAF Inhibitor NCT01037127 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Japan PhI/II of GSK2118436 and GSK1120212 Combination in Subjects With BRAF V600E/K Mutation Positive Advanced Solid Tumors (Phase I Part) or Cutaneous Melanoma (Phase II Part) NCT01928940 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetic Profile of of GSK2118436 in Japanese Subjects With BRAF Mutation Positive Solid Tumors NCT01582997 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• GSK1120212 vs Chemotherapy in Advanced or Metastatic BRAF V600E/K Mutation-positive Melanoma NCT01245062 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.