A Study Comparing GSK2118436 to Dacarbazine (DTIC) in Previously Untreated Subjects With BRAF Mutation Positive Advanced (Stage III) or Metastatic (Stage IV) Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancerpotential mustof studymelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsopen labelrandomized opencrossoverthe efficacy
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1303 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 454 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 125 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 762 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of GSK2118436 in BRAF Mutant Metastatic Melanoma NCT01153763 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Effectiveness of GSK1120212 in BRAF Mutation-positive Melanoma Previously Treated With or Without a BRAF Inhibitor NCT01037127 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Dabrafenib Plus Trametinib vs Vemurafenib Alone in Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600E/K Cutaneous Melanoma NCT01597908 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• GSK1120212 vs Chemotherapy in Advanced or Metastatic BRAF V600E/K Mutation-positive Melanoma NCT01245062 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Japan PhI/II of GSK2118436 and GSK1120212 Combination in Subjects With BRAF V600E/K Mutation Positive Advanced Solid Tumors (Phase I Part) or Cutaneous Melanoma (Phase II Part) NCT01928940 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.