A Phase I/IIa Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Topical LTX-109 in Subjects Nasally Colonized With Methicillin-resistant/-Sensitive Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA/MSSA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hepatitis virustreatmentinfectiondiseasepotential
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsvisitinvestigatorprescriptionevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of 3% LTX-109 for Nasal Decolonisation of Staphylococcus Aureus NCT05889351 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of 3% LTX-109 for Nasal Decolonisation of Staphylococcus NCT04767321 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Lytixar™ (LTX-109) on Uncomplicated, Gram-positive, Skin Infection NCT01223222 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study of the Nasal Decolonisation of Staphylococcus Aureus (SA) and the Safety and Tolerability of XF-73 Nasal Gel in Healthy Subjects NCT02282605 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety and Local Tolerability of Intranasal Gel Formulations of XF-73 NCT01592214 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.