A Two Arm Trial of Axitinib and Carboplatin/Paclitaxel in Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainmelanomasubjects muststablebaseline
  Phrases that lowered it: drugsarmvirusbloodimmunodeficiency
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized Phase II Clinical Trial on the Efficacy of Axitinib as a Monotherapy or in Combination With Lomustine for the Treatment of Patients With Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT01562197 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Axitinib in Treating Patients With Melanoma That is Metastatic or Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT01533948 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Cabozantinib and Pembrolizumab for Advanced Metastatic Melanoma NCT03957551 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy in Participants With Metastatic BRAF-mutant Melanoma Treated With Encorafenib With and Without Binimetinib in Combination With Nivolumab and Low-dose Ipilimuma NCT04655157 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• First Line Atezolizumab, Paclitaxel, and Bevacizumab (Avastin®) in mTNBC NCT04408118 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.