A Study on the Correlation Between Tarceva (Erlotinib) - Induced Rash and Efficacy in EGFR Mutated Participants With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Receiving First-Line Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticulntherapycancerline
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmalethe studyefficacysingle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 409 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 481 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1647 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) as First Line Therapy in Participants With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Harbouring Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT01310036 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Systemic and Topical Treatments for Rash Secondary to Erlotinib in Lung Cancer NCT00473083 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (TRIGGER) NCT01378962 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine/Carboplatin in Chemo-naive Stage IIIB/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Exon 19 or 21 Mutation NCT00874419 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) in Patients With Locally Advanced, Metastatic or Recurrent Non-Small Cell Cancer Who Present Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutations NCT01372384 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.