Erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine/Carboplatin in Chemo-naive Stage IIIB/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Exon 19 or 21 Mutation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungnsclcsmall cellnon small
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyphase iiidrugopencompare
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Induction Therapy With Intercalated Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) and Chemotherapy in NSCLC With Activating Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutation in Stages II-IIIB NCT02326285 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• AZD9291 First Time In Patients Ascending Dose Study NCT01802632 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study of Erlotinib (Tarceva) Versus Gemcitabine/Cisplatin as First-line Treatment in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With EGFR Mutations NCT01342965 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• TIGER-3: Open Label, Multicenter Study of Rociletinib (CO-1686) Mono Therapy Versus Single-agent Cytotoxic Chemotherapy in Patients With Mutant EGFR NSCLC Who Have Failed at Least One Previous EGFR-Directed TKI and Platinum-doublet Chemotherapy NCT02322281 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• EGF816 and Trametinib in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Harboring Activating EGFR Mutations NCT03516214 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.