S-1 Plus Nedaplatin With Concurrent Radiotherapy for Advanced Esophageal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcanceradvancedcarcinomamalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: esophagealgastricesophagusupperproducts
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• S-1 and Radiotherapy in Elderly Patients With Esophageal Cancer NCT01175447 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Study of S-1 in Combination With Radiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer NCT01831531 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Study of Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02964455 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Trial of Induction Chemotherapy With ND-420, Cisplatin and Fluorouracil Followed by Surgery in the Treatment of Patients With Localized Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Esophagus NCT02017600 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• Pre-operative Chemo (CPT11, Cisplatin), Radiotherapy, Plus Surgery for Resectable Esophageal Cancer NCT00160875 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.