Study of Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-05-31, after 2016-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: squamous cellcarcinomastageto determineconcurrent
Phrases that lowered it: patientscombinationjudgedtwiceaminotransferase -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 97 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 145 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17961 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3527 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel, nedaplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Erbitux Combined With Chemo-radiotherapy in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT00815308 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- S-1 Plus Nedaplatin With Concurrent Radiotherapy for Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT01175460 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- A Comparison of Paclitaxel-based Three Regimens Concurrent With Radiotherapy for Patients With Local Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT02459457 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Nedaplatin in Treatment for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT04834206 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Study of S-1 in Combination With Radiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer NCT01831531 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.