Erbitux Combined With Chemo-radiotherapy in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomasquamoussurgerystagecell
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationefficacyevaluatemultipleesophageal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemotherapy Induction and Chemoradiotherapy in Patients With Esophageal Carcinoma NCT00735345 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• A Comparison of Paclitaxel-based Three Regimens Concurrent With Radiotherapy for Patients With Local Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT02459457 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Definitive Radiochemotherapy Plus/Minus Cetuximab in Unresectable Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT01787006 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of TPF Induction Chemotherapy for Borderline-resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02976909 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy, With or Without Cetuximab, Followed by Surgery in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT01107639 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.