Chemotherapy Induction and Chemoradiotherapy in Patients With Esophageal Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapycarcinomametastaticresection
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetywomensafety ofparticipation inclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Definitive Radiochemotherapy Plus/Minus Cetuximab in Unresectable Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT01787006 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Erbitux Combined With Chemo-radiotherapy in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT00815308 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Cisplatin and 5-FU +/- Panitumumab for Patients With Nonresectable,Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer NCT01627379 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Cetuximab Followed by Surgery, Docetaxel, and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Esophageal Cancer or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT00551759 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Study of Combination of Cetuximab and Radiotherapy Added to the Standard Treatment for Oesophageal Adenocarcinoma NCT00827671 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.