Study of Combination of Cetuximab and Radiotherapy Added to the Standard Treatment for Oesophageal Adenocarcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 24% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-03-31, after 2009-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomastagecellchemotherapyuln
Phrases that lowered it: inadequatecontraceptivecombinationdrugsefficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5578 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1218 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cetuximab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Cetuximab Followed by Surgery, Docetaxel, and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Esophageal Cancer or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT00551759 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Definitive Radiochemotherapy Plus/Minus Cetuximab in Unresectable Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT01787006 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Pre-op Chemo-RT w/CDDP/5FU vs Chemo w/ Docetaxel/Irinotecan in PET Non Responder Resectable Esophagus Cancer NCT01608464 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
- Chemotherapy Induction and Chemoradiotherapy in Patients With Esophageal Carcinoma NCT00735345 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- PReoperative Chemoradiation (Paclitaxel-carboplatin or FOLFOX) for Resectable Esophageal and Junctional Cancer NCT02359968 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.