Pre-op Chemo-RT w/CDDP/5FU vs Chemo w/ Docetaxel/Irinotecan in PET Non Responder Resectable Esophagus Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-09-30, after 2012-05-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationchemotherapymetastasescancerthe purpose
Phrases that lowered it: disordermulticenterdrugs orhepatictrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 14 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8337 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 14 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 47706 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8337 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, cisplatin fluorouracil, docetaxel, fluorouracil, irinotecan, radiation therapy
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Preoperative Chemotherapy vs. Chemoradiation in Esophageal / GEJ Adenocarcinoma NCT01404156 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- PReoperative Chemoradiation (Paclitaxel-carboplatin or FOLFOX) for Resectable Esophageal and Junctional Cancer NCT02359968 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Pre-operative Chemo (CPT11, Cisplatin), Radiotherapy, Plus Surgery for Resectable Esophageal Cancer NCT00160875 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Radiochemotherapy With and Without Dose Escalation in Patients Presenting Locally Advanced or Inoperable Carcinoma of the Oesophagus NCT01348217 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Study of Combination of Cetuximab and Radiotherapy Added to the Standard Treatment for Oesophageal Adenocarcinoma NCT00827671 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.