Preoperative Chemotherapy vs. Chemoradiation in Esophageal / GEJ Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: determinecancerradiationchemotherapyeffective
  Phrases that lowered it: jointlimittrial touppercount
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7761 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PReoperative Chemoradiation (Paclitaxel-carboplatin or FOLFOX) for Resectable Esophageal and Junctional Cancer NCT02359968 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Pre-op Chemo-RT w/CDDP/5FU vs Chemo w/ Docetaxel/Irinotecan in PET Non Responder Resectable Esophagus Cancer NCT01608464 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Cetuximab Followed by Surgery, Docetaxel, and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Esophageal Cancer or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT00551759 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Postoperative Chemotherapy and Chemo-radiotherapy for Resected Gastric Cancer NCT00718913 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Potentially Resectable Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction NCT01962246 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.