A Phase II Trial of Valproic Acid in Patients With Advanced Thyroid Cancers of Follicular Cell Origin

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalpatients mustcellstumorto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsaciddisordersclinicaldisorder
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 430 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 233 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 798 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Iodine I-131 With or Without Selumetinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Thyroid Cancer NCT02393690 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• An Initial Study of Lithium in Patients With Medullary Thyroid Cancer NCT00582712 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Lenvatinib (E7080) in Subjects With Iodine-131 Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer to Evaluate Whether an Oral Starting Dose of 18 Milligram (mg) Daily Will Provide Comparable Efficacy to a 24 mg Starting Dose, But Have a Better Safety Profile NCT02702388 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Sutent Adjunctive Treatment of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer NCT00668811 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of MEK (Trametinib) and BRAFV600E (Dabrafenib) Inhibitors With Radioactive Iodine (RAI) for the Treatment of Refractory Metastatic Differentiated Thyroid Cancer NCT03244956 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.