Combination of Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) and Varenicline to Increase Cessation of Tobacco (CONVICT Study)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-10-31, after 2011-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapystagehoursrenal diseaseplacebo
Phrases that lowered it: smokingnicotineparticipantssmokersvarenicline -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 36.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 59417 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 33347 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 36.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nicotine, varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of a Novel Nicotine Replacement Therapy NCT02355665 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Use of Varenicline for 4-weeks Prior to Quitting NCT00789074 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Study to Determine if a New Nicotine Replacement Therapy Can Safely Help Smokers to Quit Smoking NCT01296698 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Effectiveness of Combination Varenicline and Oral Nicotine Replacement Therapy (COMBO) NCT03722966 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- Varenicline in Combination With Nicotine Replacement Therapy for Smoking Cessation NCT01444131 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.