Study to Determine if a New Nicotine Replacement Therapy Can Safely Help Smokers to Quit Smoking

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboequaldouble blindrandomized doubletherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvisitsmokingsubjectstimes
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 26.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of a Novel Nicotine Replacement Therapy NCT02355665 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Combination of Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) and Varenicline to Increase Cessation of Tobacco (CONVICT Study) NCT01184664 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Evaluate Harm Reduction Products as a Second Line Intervention for Adult Smokers Who Do Not Quit With NRT NCT06088862 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
• STARS (Smoking Treatment And Remote Sampling) Study NCT04525755 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Varenicline in Combination With Nicotine Replacement Therapy for Smoking Cessation NCT01444131 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.