Long-term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of BAF312 Given Orally in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termsclerosisextensionterm safetyrelapsing
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasespatientsto evaluateonce dailyefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 263 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 237 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Exploring the Efficacy and Safety of Siponimod in Patients With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (EXPAND) NCT01665144 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Extension Study in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis Who Have Completed Study 205MS301 (NCT01064401) to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of BIIB019 NCT01797965 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Open Label Extension Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of Oral Fampridine-Sustained Release (SR) in Canadian Participants With Multiple Sclerosis Who Participated in Acorda Extension Trials. NCT01235221 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Conversion From Oral, Injectable, or Infusion Disease Modifying Therapies to Dose-titrated Oral Siponimod (Mayzent) in Advancing RMS Patients NCT03623243 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Long-term Efficacy and Safety of Fingolimod (FTY720) in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT00662649 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.