Exploring the Efficacy and Safety of Siponimod in Patients With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (EXPAND)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 37% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiple sclerosisplaceborelapsingmsmri
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofopen labeldrugs
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 306 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 461 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Long-term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of BAF312 Given Orally in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01185821 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Conversion From Oral, Injectable, or Infusion Disease Modifying Therapies to Dose-titrated Oral Siponimod (Mayzent) in Advancing RMS Patients NCT03623243 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Efficacy and Optimal Dose Finding Study of BAF312 in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT00879658 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• An Extension Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Fingolimod (FTY720) in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT00670449 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Extension Study in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis Who Have Completed Study 205MS301 (NCT01064401) to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of BIIB019 NCT01797965 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.