Erlotinib Re-Challenge for Recurrent EGFR-mutant Lung Cancer in Patients Who Previously Received Adjuvant Erlotinib or Gefitinib
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-01-31, after 2010-08-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lung cancerneoadjuvantadjuvantnsclctumor
Phrases that lowered it: receivedevaluatepreviouslytimestrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 282 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 282 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 75 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1297 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 517 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Erlotinib Treatment Beyond Progression in EGFR Mutant NSCLC NCT02064491 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Iressa Re-challenge in Advanced NSCLC EGFR-mutated Patients NCT02025218 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
- Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) in Newly Diagnosed Advanced Staged Lung Adenocarcinoma (Sindas) NCT02893332 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Third-line Treatment of Gefitinib in NSCLC Patients NCT01933347 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Erlotinib Therapy and Subsequent Development of Mechanisms of Secondary Resistance in Patients With NSCLC NCT00997334 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.