Erlotinib Treatment Beyond Progression in EGFR Mutant NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnprogressionmetastasesegfrrecist
  Phrases that lowered it: patient has28patient withhepatitishiv
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 78382 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12730 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Erlotinib Re-Challenge for Recurrent EGFR-mutant Lung Cancer in Patients Who Previously Received Adjuvant Erlotinib or Gefitinib NCT01189435 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine/Carboplatin in Chemo-naive Stage IIIB/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Exon 19 or 21 Mutation NCT00874419 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Biomarkers Impact on Participants Response to Erlotinib Treatment for First-line Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Activating Mutations NCT01153984 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• BELIEF (Bevacizumab and ErLotinib In EGFR Mut+ NSCLC) NCT01562028 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter Randomized Phase III Study Comparing Second-line Treatment With Chemotherapy Associated or Not to Erlotinib in NSCLC Patients With Secondary Resistance to TKI-EGFR NCT02178397 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.