Study Comparing Conventional Dose Combination RVD to High-Dose Treatment With ASCT in the Initial Myeloma up to 65 Years

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartmyelomapatients mustmg dlregistration
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsclinicalrespiratoryscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 39.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 24 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Response Adapted Therapy With Bortezomib/Dexamethasone Followed by Addition of Lenalidomide in Non Responders as Initial Treatment for Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01919086 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Comparing KTd vs. KRd Induction Therapy and Investigating a K-mono Maintenance Strategy NCT02891811 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide/Bortezomib/Dexamethasone & CNTO 328 in Transplant Eligible Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT01531998 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study of Initial Treatment With Elotuzumab, Carfilzomib, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Multiple Myeloma NCT02969837 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Study of Carfilzomib in Combination w/Dexamethasone in Patients w/Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT01969565 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.