Sevelamer and Secondary Hyperparathyroidism in Chronic Kidney Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-04-30, after 2010-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseasechronic kidneycalciumminphosphate
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofstudy willblindcriteria any -
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 120 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 604 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 176 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sevelamer, sevelamer carbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Sevelamer in Proteinuric CKD NCT01968759 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- FGF23 Reduction : Efficacy of a New Phosphate Binder in CHronic Kidney Disease NCT01220843 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Effects of Phosphate Binding With Sevelamer in Stage 3 Chronic Kidney Disease NCT00806481 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Dose-Titration Study of Sevelamer Carbonate in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Patients on Hemodialysis NCT01736150 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Randomised, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Sevelamer Carbonate Tablets Dosed Three Times a Day in Hyperphosphataemic Chronic Kidney Disease Patients Not on Dialysis NCT00833768 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.