Neoadjuvant Ipilimumab in Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcancerbmscellchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whodiseasessafety ofdrugrheumatoid
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 252 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ipilimumab + Androgen Depravation Therapy in Prostate Cancer NCT01377389 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Combining Ipilimumab, Degarelix, and Radical Prostatectomy in Men With Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Castration Sensitive Prostate Cancer or Ipilimumab and Degarelix in Men With Biochemically Recurrent Castration Sensitive Prostate Cancer After Radical Prostatectomy NCT02020070 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab in Combination With Androgen Suppression Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Hormone-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01498978 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab With Nivolumab for Molecular-selected Patients With Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT04717154 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Combination of Nivolumab Immunotherapy With Radiation Therapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy NCT03543189 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.