Ipilimumab + Androgen Depravation Therapy in Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-04-07, after 2011-06-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticbowelcancermetastasesdisease
Phrases that lowered it: patients wholonghormonesafety oftrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 297 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 18 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 18 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 297 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 29.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 158 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3720 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 778 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- degarelix, goserelin, ipilimumab, leuprolide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ipilimumab in Combination With Androgen Suppression Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Hormone-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01498978 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Combining Ipilimumab, Degarelix, and Radical Prostatectomy in Men With Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Castration Sensitive Prostate Cancer or Ipilimumab and Degarelix in Men With Biochemically Recurrent Castration Sensitive Prostate Cancer After Radical Prostatectomy NCT02020070 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Ipilimumab in Prostate Cancer NCT01194271 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- COMbination of Bipolar Androgen Therapy and Nivolumab NCT03554317 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Sipuleucel-T With Immediate vs. Delayed Cytotoxic T-Lymphocyte-Associated Protein 4 (CTLA-4) Blockade for Prostate Cancer NCT01804465 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.