Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Skin Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: erlotinibheartegfrbowelmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: tabletsparticipantsmmaminotransferaseallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 284 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1598 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of Erlotinib, Prior to Surgery or Radiation in Patients With Squamous Cell Cancers (SCC) of the Skin NCT01059305 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Study of Erlotinib With Docetaxel in Selected Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients in First Line Treatment NCT00840125 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Hydrochloride and Onalespib Lactate in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic EGFR-Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02535338 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Dose Escalation Study of Erlotinib in Combination With Theophylline NCT02080078 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Erlotinib and AT-101 in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Patients With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Activating Mutations NCT00988169 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.