Erlotinib Hydrochloride and Onalespib Lactate in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic EGFR-Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 40% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclcsmall cellegfrcell lunglung cancer
  Phrases that lowered it: dosepatientthe effecttrialeffect of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 61.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1027 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 13446 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Skin Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT01198028 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Study of ASP8273 vs. Erlotinib or Gefitinib in First-line Treatment of Patients With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Tumors With EGFR Activating Mutations NCT02588261 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• EGF816 and Trametinib in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Harboring Activating EGFR Mutations NCT03516214 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Molecular Imaging With Erlotinib and Bevacizumab NCT01047059 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib in First and Second Line Treatment of NSCLC Harboring EGFR Mutations From Circulating Tumor DNA NCT02769286 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.