A Multicentre Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Supplementary Treatment With Cholecalciferol in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Treated With Subcutaneous Interferon Beta-1a 44 µg 3 Times Weekly

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebosclerosissubjectsdouble blindcontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: accordingcorticosteroidsmoderatetreated withtreatment with
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12396 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of Vitamin D Supplementation in Multiple Sclerosis (EVIDIMS) NCT01440062 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Supplementation of VigantOL® Oil Versus Placebo as Add-on in Patients With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Receiving Rebif® Treatment NCT01285401 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Vitamin D Supplementation in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01490502 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Cholecalciferol (Vitamin D3) for Delaying the Diagnosis of MS After a Clinically Isolated Syndrome NCT01817166 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Colecalciferol as an Add-on Treatment to Subcutaneously-Administered Interferon-beta-1b for Treatment of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT01432704 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.