Efficacy of Vitamin D Supplementation in Multiple Sclerosis (EVIDIMS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationvitaminmriconditiontreatment with
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacypatients whosafetymonths beforebetween 18
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vitamin D3 and the Stress-axis in MS NCT02096133 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• A Multicentre Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Supplementary Treatment With Cholecalciferol in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Treated With Subcutaneous Interferon Beta-1a 44 µg 3 Times Weekly NCT01198132 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunologic Effect of Low Dose Versus High Dose Vitamin D3 in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01024777 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Cholecalciferol (Vitamin D3) for Delaying the Diagnosis of MS After a Clinically Isolated Syndrome NCT01817166 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Vitamin D Supplementation in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01490502 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.