A Study to Evaluate the Dosing of AMG 827 for Subjects With Inadequately Controlled Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinechronicplacebodiseasedetermine if
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmafev1visitefficacydiabetes
• Sponsor's past trials: 189 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 81 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AMG 853 Phase 2 Study in Subjects With Inadequately Controlled Asthma NCT01018550 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• AMG 761 in Adults With Asthma NCT01514981 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• A First-in-Human, Double Blind, Single Dose Study in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Mild Atopic Asthma. NCT01928368 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI9929 (AMG 157) in Adult Subjects With Inadequately Controlled, Severe Asthma NCT02054130 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Double Masked, Placebo Controlled, Single Center, Randomized Clinical Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Subjects With Mild Asthma Induced by the Bronchial Allergen Challenge (BAC) NCT04728711 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.