Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI9929 (AMG 157) in Adult Subjects With Inadequately Controlled, Severe Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: syndromecancereligiblelongtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmasubjectskgsmokersand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI3506 in Adults With Uncontrolled Moderate-to-severe Asthma NCT04570657 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Effect on Exercise Challenge Testing of MEDI-528 in Adults With Asthma NCT00590720 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics of MEDI9929 (AMG 157) in Adolescents With Mild to Moderate Asthma NCT02512900 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Effects of MEDI-563 in Adults With Asthma NCT00659659 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI-563 in Adults With Uncontrolled Asthma NCT01238861 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.