Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI3506 in Adults With Uncontrolled Moderate-to-severe Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebocancertherapyuncontrolledtreated
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsasthmaparticipantsafety ofthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1626 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of MEDI-528 in Adults NCT00968669 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Effect on Exercise Challenge Testing of MEDI-528 in Adults With Asthma NCT00590720 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI9929 (AMG 157) in Adult Subjects With Inadequately Controlled, Severe Asthma NCT02054130 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4604 in Adult Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Asthma Uncontrolled on Medium-High Dose ICS-LABA NCT06020014 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Benralizumab in Patients With Uncontrolled Asthma on Medium to High Dose Inhaled Corticosteroid Plus LABA (MIRACLE) NCT03186209 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.