Influence of Prior Chemotherapy on Clinical Benefit With Erlotinib in Patients With Advanced Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With or Without EGFR Gene Mutation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagechemotherapysquamousbrainnsclc
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyinfluenceto investigateinvestigate theclinical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) to Compare Two Different Doses in in Currently Smoking Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (CURRENTS) NCT01183858 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• 2nd Line Erlotinib Treatment With (Out) Chemotherapy of Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00835471 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Versus Pemetrexed as Second-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Lung Adenocarcinoma NCT01565538 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Combination of Erlotinib and Bevacizumab as Second-line Treatment in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00749567 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Biomarkers Impact on Participants Response to Erlotinib Treatment for First-line Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Activating Mutations NCT01153984 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.