Erlotinib Versus Pemetrexed as Second-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Lung Adenocarcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-05-31, after 2008-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: egfrlungnon smallsmall cellerlotinib
Phrases that lowered it: counttrialefficacymmtimes -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2328 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 581 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, pemetrexed
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Influence of Prior Chemotherapy on Clinical Benefit With Erlotinib in Patients With Advanced Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With or Without EGFR Gene Mutation NCT01204307 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Erlotinib Treatment Beyond Progression in EGFR Mutant NSCLC NCT02064491 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- BELIEF (Bevacizumab and ErLotinib In EGFR Mut+ NSCLC) NCT01562028 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- EGFR-TKI Combined With Concurrent or Sequential Chemotherapy for Patients of Gradual Progression NCT03544814 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- A Study of Nivolumab + Chemotherapy or Nivolumab + Ipilimumab Versus Chemotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Participants With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutation Who Failed 1L or 2L EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) Therapy NCT02864251 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.