A Study of Nivolumab + Chemotherapy or Nivolumab + Ipilimumab Versus Chemotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Participants With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutation Who Failed 1L or 2L EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-10-17, after 2017-03-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: nsclclung cancercell lungsmall cellnon small
Phrases that lowered it: participantssubjectslinelabeldose of -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21144 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 559 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 559 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 102 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 97009 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 21144 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carboplatin, cisplatin, ipilimumab, nivolumab, pemetrexed
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- AZD9291 (Osimertinib) Versus Platinum-Based Doublet-Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02151981 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Study of Pemetrexed + Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Adults With Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor- (TKI)-Resistant Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor- (EGFR)-Mutated Metastatic Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (MK-3475-789/KEYNOTE-789) NCT03515837 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Study of Safety and Efficacy of EGFR-TKI EGF816 in Combination With cMET Inhibitor INC280 in Adult Patients With EGFR Mutated Non Small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT02335944 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
- A Study of BMS-986315 and Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy in Participants With First-line Stage IV or Recurrent Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT06094296 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy Study of Nivolumab Compared to Docetaxel in Subjects Previously Treated With Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02613507 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.