A Study of BMS-986315 and Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy in Participants With First-line Stage IV or Recurrent Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ivbmschemotherapyrecurrentstage
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetypharmacokineticsefficacy andevaluate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 896 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 358286 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess BMS-986207 in Combination With Nivolumab and Ipilimumab as First-line Treatment for Participants With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT05005273 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Study of BMS-936558 (Nivolumab) Compared to Docetaxel in Previously Treated Metastatic Non-squamous NSCLC NCT01673867 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Study of BMS-936558 (Nivolumab) Compared to Docetaxel in Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (CheckMate 017) NCT01642004 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986442 With Nivolumab With or Without Chemotherapy in Solid Tumors and Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT05543629 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• An Open-Label, Multicenter Clinical Trial With Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Monotherapy in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell (Sq) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Received at Least One Prior Systemic Regimen for the Treatment of Stage IIIb/IV SqNSCLC NCT02409368 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.