A Study to Assess BMS-986207 in Combination With Nivolumab and Ipilimumab as First-line Treatment for Participants With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 76 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsstageto determineipilimumabiv
  Phrases that lowered it: participantslymphomaor suspectednonnsclc
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of BMS-986315 and Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy in Participants With First-line Stage IV or Recurrent Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT06094296 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell Nonsmall-cell Lung Cancer Who Have Received At Least 2 Prior Systemic Regimens NCT01721759 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986207 Given Alone and in Combination With Nivolumab or With Nivolumab and Ipilimumab in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02913313 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label, Multicenter Clinical Trial With Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Monotherapy in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell (Sq) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Received at Least One Prior Systemic Regimen for the Treatment of Stage IIIb/IV SqNSCLC NCT02409368 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immunotherapy Study of BMS-986301 Alone or in Combination With Nivolumab, and Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Solid Cancers NCT03956680 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.