GLPG0259 in Methotrexate-refractory Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboto screeningstudymonthssubject
  Phrases that lowered it: rapatientsmethotrexatecellcarcinoma
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of GLPG0634 in Methotrexate-refractory Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients NCT01384422 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Dose-ranging Study With GLPG0634 in Methotrexate-refractory Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients NCT01668641 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• First in Human Study of a Monoclonal Antibody (SOL-116) Targeting BSSL (Bile Salt-Stimulated Lipase), Single and Multiple Dose Parts NCT05576012 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2409 Following a Single Intravenous Dose in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT02171143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Clinical Effects of Multiple Rising Subcutaneous Doses of BI 655064 in Healthy Volunteers and in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients With Prior Inadequate Response to Methotrexate Therapy NCT01751776 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.