Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of GLPG0634 in Methotrexate-refractory Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to screeningprior tostudy drugmonthsdose of
  Phrases that lowered it: patientscountrarefractoryjoint
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-ranging Study With GLPG0634 in Methotrexate-refractory Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients NCT01668641 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study of GLPG0634 as Monotherapy in Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Participants (DARWIN2) NCT01894516 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study of GLPG0634 as add-on to Methotrexate in Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Participants (DARWIN1) NCT01888874 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• GLPG0259 in Methotrexate-refractory Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01211249 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Clinical Effects of Multiple Rising Subcutaneous Doses of BI 655064 in Healthy Volunteers and in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients With Prior Inadequate Response to Methotrexate Therapy NCT01751776 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.