Study of Inhaled Carbon Monoxide to Treat Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equal togreater thanor equalto determinepulmonary
  Phrases that lowered it: trialsmokinginhaledrespiratorymonth
• Collaborators: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 85.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Characterize the Safety, PK and Biological Activity of CC-930 in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01203943 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CC-90001 in Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT03142191 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test Whether BI 1839100 Improves Cough in People With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis or Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT06360094 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Interferon-alpha Treatment of Chronic Cough in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT00690885 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• Targeting Vascular Reactivity in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT00981747 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.