Metformin in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerdiabetesgreatersquamous celltherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantbodygroupprostate cancercastration
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 208 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8967 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 40524 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Prevention of Metabolic Syndrome and Increased Weight Using Metformin Concurrent to Androgen Deprivation Therapy and Radiotherapy for Locally Advanced Adenocarcinoma of the Prostate NCT01996696 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Metformin Hydrochloride as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT01243385 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Castration Compared to Castration Plus Metformin as First Line Treatment for Patients With Advanced Prostate Cancer NCT01620593 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Bicalutamide With or Without Metformin for Biochemical Recurrence in Overweight or Obese Prostate Cancer Patients NCT02614859 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Metformin Prostate Cancer Adjuvant Trial NCT02176161 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.