Bicalutamide With or Without Metformin for Biochemical Recurrence in Overweight or Obese Prostate Cancer Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreater thansubjectsrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatepsatestosteroneinsulinmale
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 142776 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 34324 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 65 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Castration Compared to Castration Plus Metformin as First Line Treatment for Patients With Advanced Prostate Cancer NCT01620593 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Metformin Hydrochloride as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT01243385 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Metformin Hydrochloride and Aspirin in Treating Patients With Hormone-Dependent Prostate Cancer That Has Progressed After Surgery or Radiation Therapy NCT02420652 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Metformin in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01215032 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• Prevention of Metabolic Syndrome and Increased Weight Using Metformin Concurrent to Androgen Deprivation Therapy and Radiotherapy for Locally Advanced Adenocarcinoma of the Prostate NCT01996696 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.