A Pharmacokinetic and Randomized Trial of Neoadjuvant Treatment With Anastrozole Plus AZD0530 in Postmenopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomaher2breast cancertreatment oftreatment with
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticrespiratoryto participateparticipate inparenteral
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AZD4547 & Anastrozole or Letrozole (NSAIs) in ER+ Breast Cancer Patients Who Have Progressed on NSAIs (RADICAL) NCT01791985 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Window Study of SAR439859 (Amcenestrant) Versus Letrozole in Post-menopausal Patients With ER+, HER2- Pre-operative Post-menopausal Primary Breast Cancer NCT04191382 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized Study of AZD2014 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02216786 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Randomized Study Evaluating the Biological and Clinical Effects of the Combination of Palbociclib With Letrozole as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Post-Menopausal Women With Estrogen-Receptor Positive Primary Breast Cancer NCT02296801 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01791478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.