A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MLTA3698A in Combination With a Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drug (DMARD) Compared With Adalimumab in Combination With a DMARD in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: raarthritisrheumatoidblindto screening
  Phrases that lowered it: patientscountphase iitherapyweeks
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Tregalizumab in Subjects (MTX-IR) With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01999192 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of PRO283698 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00888745 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study of JHL1101 Versus MabThera® in Subjects With Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03161457 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Effects of GLPG3970 Given as an Oral Treatment for 6 Weeks in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis and an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT04577781 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of SM03 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Receiving Methotrexate NCT04192617 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.