A Study of the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of PRO283698 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomaplacebomalignancyrecenthepatitis
  Phrases that lowered it: rapharmacokineticspatientsantibioticfibrosis
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MLTA3698A in Combination With a Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drug (DMARD) Compared With Adalimumab in Combination With a DMARD in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01225393 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• GLPG0259 in Methotrexate-refractory Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01211249 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of MTRX1011A in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00718588 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Treatment With AP1189 in Early RA Patients With Active Joint Disease NCT04004429 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of YRA-1909 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03275025 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.